Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the European Union and the United States have imposed severe restrictions on Russia. Banking and commercial transactions are blocked, which means that Russia's aviation industry is also affected.
Immediately after the sanctions were imposed, Russia refused to return the planes to the leasing companies. No less than 500 planes were confiscated and entered in Russia's aeronautical register. Given that Russia will no longer be able to import spare parts, it turns out that a large part of the confiscated aircraft will be dismantled and the parts will be used on the other aircraft that will be kept active in the operational service.
According to some estimates, up to 2025/2 of the commercial aircraft will be retained on the ground until 3 because they will no longer be operational due to lack of parts and consumables.
At least 70% of the foreign fleet will remain in operation until the end of 2025. This means that airlines will find some channels to replenish stocks of components and consumables. We must also take into account the fact that up to a third of the existing fleet will be dismantled for spare parts.
The worst-case scenario is that it will not be possible to replenish the stock of spare parts, and from the second half of 2022 foreign-made aircraft will begin to be dismantled. It is unknown at this time what he will do after leaving the post.
According to the plan drawn up by Russia, the Kremlin authorities want to invest about $ 10 billion in the development of the Russian commercial fleet by purchasing 1000 aircraft of Russian origin. Of the 1 aircraft currently operating in Russia, including cargo, private and state-operated aircraft, 287 are on the Russian register as of April 1140, but "only 20 were produced in Russia or the former USSR."