Air transport is becoming more accessible in all regions of the world, and air traffic is increasing by approximately 5% annually. This increase translates to more passengers, more commercial aircraft needed for transport, more airports and larger airports.
According to a study by Airbus - Global Market Forecast (GMF), in the following 20 years (2013-2032) will be needed 29220 of new passenger and freight aircraft, all evaluated at 4.4 trillions of dollars. Of the 29220, approximately 28350 would be needed for passenger aircraft, a market valued at 4.1 trillions of dollars. Of these, 10400 aircraft will replace much of the current fleet. The study shows that the global air fleet will double in the next 20 years. Currently, the global air fleet counts approximately 17700 of aircraft, with 2032 reaching approximately 36500 of units.
Economic growth in certain regions, ease of travel, urbanization, tourism, accessibility, these are some of the factors that will lead to increased air traffic. Moreover, it is estimated that in 2032 there will be 89 of mega cities, compared to 42 as many as they are today, and most of the long-haul traffic will take place between them. New estimates show that 2032 will fly approximately 6.7 billion passengers, more than twice as much as 2.9 billion today.
Airbus estimates that more and more large airlines are looking to buy widebody aircraft to carry more passengers and operate fewer flights. Thus, they can use the slots allocated on very busy airports more efficiently. Another focus will be on lower fuel consumption, and they will come into play here the planes of the near future.
The market for very large aircraft is estimated at about 1300 units worth 520 billion. Here comes A380, the largest passenger plane on the market. 47% of the demand comes from the Asia-Pacific area, then the Middle East with 26% and Europe with 16%.
The two-color aircraft market is estimated at 6780 by units worth 1.8 trillions of dollars. This includes, among others, the A350 XWB and A330 aircraft. 48% of the demand comes from the Asia-Pacific area, then Europe with 15% and the Middle East with 13%.
The single-aisle aircraft market is estimated at 20242 by units worth 1.8 trillions of dollars, meaning 71% of the entire new aircraft market. 34% of the demand comes from the Asia-Pacific area, followed by North America and Europe with 23% each. The success of low cost companies has made a significant contribution to this demand. It is estimated that in 2032, low-cost carriers will have 21% market share.
I am glad to see that Boeing and Airbus are making the same estimates on the increase in annual air traffic, but they seem to be unable to agree on the need for new aircraft. On 11 June, Boeing estimates 35 000 market for new aircraft over the next 20 years. It is worth noting that these estimates cover the entire aircraft market and not just Airbus and Boeing. And yet, where are the 6000 planes "lost", the difference between Boeing and Airbus estimates?
That's why Tarom is looking for a wide body everywhere! It no longer meets the demand… Nonsense… Only marketing strategies at Boeing and Airbus and everywhere! This is to make this worldwide aviation business work. Genre: become pilots, become flight attendants, mechanics, etc., buy planes that will only need to collect money in training centers and airlines. A concrete example: in Romania nothing has been happening for many years in the field of aviation… only unemployed people wanting to be at "height".
And what about the annual increase in passengers? It flies more and more from year to year. I know a lot of young pilots and flight attendants who are employed and working. Plus Romania needs technicians. Those who are now on the ground are old, and in the coming years they will be replaced. With whom? So are the pilots, the flight attendants. It is known that TAROM has staff with a fairly small average age… But they have another problem because they are "budget" and recruitment is harder.
Plus, look, the regional airports have started to move. Wizz Air has flights from 4-5 airports, Carpatair flies from Craiova and Timisoara, Blue Air flies from Bacau and Bucharest. We cannot say that nothing happened!
If we keep talking about the increase no. of aircraft, and also about the increase in the number of flights with widebody aircraft, we must say that Airbus has just announced a large order - 31 pieces - for the A350, from Japan Airlines (JAL), worth $ 9,5 billion! It is noticeable that the A350 will be more successful than the B787, which is quite "wrinkled" due to battery problems - even if in the meantime they have solved the problem.
I know the news. It's working! I can't make a decision on success. It is certain that 787 is still flying, and the older brother is preparing to come on the market. Possible to witness an interesting duel with situation reversals.