Airbus estimates 29 000 market for new aircraft over the next 20 years
Air transport is becoming more accessible in all regions of the world, and air traffic is increasing by approximately 5% annually. This increase translates to more passengers, more commercial aircraft needed for transport, more airports and larger airports.
According to a study by Airbus - Global Market Forecast (GMF), in the following 20 years (2013-2032) will be needed 29220 of new passenger and freight aircraft, all evaluated at 4.4 trillions of dollars. Of the 29220, approximately 28350 would be needed for passenger aircraft, a market valued at 4.1 trillions of dollars. Of these, 10400 aircraft will replace much of the current fleet. The study shows that the global air fleet will double in the next 20 years. Currently, the global air fleet counts approximately 17700 of aircraft, with 2032 reaching approximately 36500 of units.
Economic growth in certain regions, ease of travel, urbanization, tourism, accessibility, these are some of the factors that will lead to increased air traffic. Moreover, it is estimated that in 2032 there will be 89 of mega cities, compared to 42 as many as they are today, and most of the long-haul traffic will take place between them. New estimates show that 2032 will fly approximately 6.7 billion passengers, more than twice as much as 2.9 billion today.
Airbus estimates that more and more large airlines are looking to buy widebody aircraft to carry more passengers and operate fewer flights. Thus, they can use the slots allocated on very busy airports more efficiently. Another focus will be on lower fuel consumption, and they will come into play here the planes of the near future.
The market for very large aircraft is estimated at about 1300 units worth 520 billion. Here comes A380, the largest passenger plane on the market. 47% of the demand comes from the Asia-Pacific area, then the Middle East with 26% and Europe with 16%.
The two-color aircraft market is estimated at 6780 by units worth 1.8 trillions of dollars. This includes, among others, the A350 XWB and A330 aircraft. 48% of the demand comes from the Asia-Pacific area, then Europe with 15% and the Middle East with 13%.
The single-aisle aircraft market is estimated at 20242 by units worth 1.8 trillions of dollars, meaning 71% of the entire new aircraft market. 34% of the demand comes from the Asia-Pacific area, followed by North America and Europe with 23% each. The success of low cost companies has made a significant contribution to this demand. It is estimated that in 2032, low-cost carriers will have 21% market share.
I am glad to see that Boeing and Airbus are making the same estimates on the increase in annual air traffic, but they seem to be unable to agree on the need for new aircraft. On 11 June, Boeing estimates 35 000 market for new aircraft over the next 20 years. It is worth noting that these estimates cover the entire aircraft market and not just that of Airbus and Boeing. And yet, where do the 6000 planes get lost, the difference between Boeing and Airbus estimates?