Over the next 20 years, Airbus estimates that demand for air transport will gradually shift from fleet growth to the accelerated withdrawal of older and less fuel-efficient aircraft. These fleet transformations will lead to the need for approximately 39 new generation passenger and cargo aircraft. It is estimated that 000 new aircraft will be needed to replace the old aircraft.
As a result, by 2040, the vast majority of commercial aircraft in operation will be state-of-the-art, up from around 13% today, significantly improving the CO2 emissions efficiency of the world's commercial aircraft fleets.
Airbus forecasts for the next 20 years
The economic benefits of aviation extend beyond the sector, contributing about 4% to annual global GDP and supporting about 90 million jobs worldwide. Although it lost almost two years of growth in the COVID pandemic, passenger traffic has shown resilience and is set to grow by an average of 3,9% per year, driven by the expansion of economies and trade around the globe, including tourism development. .
The middle class, which will fly the most, will grow by two billion people to 63% of the world's population. The fastest growing traffic will be in Asia, with domestic China becoming the largest market.
The demand for new aircraft will include approximately 29 small aircraft such as the A700 and A220 families, as well as approximately 320 in the medium aircraft category, such as the A5XLR and A300neo. In the wide-body segment, covered by the A321, a need of about 330 aircraft is expected by 350.
The cargo segment as a progressive.
An increase in air freight transport by 4,7% per year and an increase in general freight (representing about 75% of the market) is estimated at 2,7%. Overall, approximately 20 cargo aircraft will be needed over the next 2440 years, of which 880 will be new.
Consistent with the growing air operations and the need for increasingly efficient new aircraft globally, the need for commercial aviation services is also growing - including maintenance, training, upgrades, flight operations, dismantling and recycling. This increase is well on track with Airbus forecast levels before and after the pandemic, reaching a cumulative value of about $ 4,8 billion over the next 20 years.
At the same time, approximately 550 new pilots and more than 000 highly qualified technicians will be needed over the next 710 years. While maintenance will remain the main segment of services, it is expected that flight, ground operations and sustainable services will increase significantly.
The global aviation industry has already achieved huge efficiency gains, as evidenced by the 53% decrease in global CO2 emissions from aviation since 1990. The Airbus product line supports a CO2 efficiency gain of at least 20% over next-generation aircraft. previous. Given innovations, product developments, operational improvements, and market-based options, Airbus supports the goal of the air transport sector to reach the zero CO2 target by 2050.