The year 2020 had a difficult debut. Ever since the first days of the new year, humanity has faced fires in Australia; earthquakes in Turkey, Croatia, Greece; Aviation accident and then he came pandemic with the new coronavirus.
In just 3 months, the Earth stopped. Over 200 countries and territories reported the existence of the new COVID-19. Over 1.4 million people became infected, over 82 of them died from complications.
Most countries have taken social distance measures, closed borders, imposed travel restrictions and suspended transport. The first industries directly affected were horeca, aviation and tourism. Millions of people were sent into technical unemployment, others were laid off. Over 15 aircraft remained on the groundand airports are empty. There is no precedent, there is no term for comparison with what is happening today.
Post-coronavirus trips
Inevitably, after the coronavirus pandemic, an economic crisis will follow. It is only for the governments of the world how deep the crisis will be and how far it will extend. And do not hesitate to ask what the post-coronavirus trips will look like. Which airlines and travel agents will lose the battle?
Specialists from the Atmosphere Research Group I say that the two industries - commercial passenger aviation and tourism - will recover slowly. Their estimates show that it will take 24 months until that "normal" before the pandemic. And this only after the coronavirus pandemic will be declared "under control."
It remains to be seen what "under control" will mean. It may be a stage where new cases will be in a small number and patients will be able to receive effective treatment. Or it may mean when a vaccine will appear.
In any case, post-coronavirus trips will slowly enter a normal path. It will not be a sudden comeback. Some specialists say that people will try to travel more internally, between the borders of the countries where they live, and less abroad.
Aviation and tourism will reach "normal" in 2023
Airlines will first redo their regional and short-haul networks, and will gradually expand long-haul. They will focus more on smaller aircraft with 2 engines. A350 and B787 will play an important role. However, we can see how the big airline operators have already started to give up the big and 4-engine airplanes, such as the A380, B747 and A340. This trend existed before COVID-19.
So what will be the strategy of returning to "normal" in commercial aviation and tourism? Atmosphere Research Group specialists are considering the idea that the new COVID-19 could be under control by the end of this year.
In the first 6-9 months post-coronavirus, that is until mid-2021, people will travel more point-to-point, over short distances. In the first phase, business travel will play an important role. Later, personal and leisure trips. At first people with higher incomes will fly. Obviously, airfare prices will increase, as will holiday fares.
Between 9 and 16 months post-coronavirus, people with medium and high incomes will venture more on long-haul flights. Business trips will grow even more, but the journeys of those with average incomes will also increase.
In the 12-18 months period, we can say that the business segment returned to "normal", as well as the premium segment. And only after this period will we be able to say that commercial aviation begins to record a normal volume of travel. If the estimates are correct, it is only at the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023 that we can say that mass tourism will return to normal, that is to the figures from the end of 2019.
Yes, it is not too optimistic, but not too pessimistic. Probably in some regions aviation and tourism will return to normal much faster, and in others much slower. I personally think that in Europe the situation will be a little better.
Opening the borders and lifting travel restrictions will make people travel in search of a new job. Others will want to travel on city breaks or stays, but closer to home. Maybe they won't venture that long on long-haul flights, maybe even on average flights. But tourism is not gone, and people want to travel freely. Am I too optimistic?