Over 33 000 new aircraft for the next 20 years (Airbus estimates)
As we have become accustomed, the big commercial aircraft manufacturers make annual forecasts on the air transport market. Airbus Global Market Forecast estimates a market over 33 000 of new aircraft for the next 20 years (2016 - 2035).
33 000 new aircraft in the next 20 years
For the next 20 years, Airbus says global passenger traffic will increase by an average of 4.5% / year. This would result in a need for over 33 000 for new aircraft with a capacity of over 100 of seats. The estimated value of the aircraft construction market will amount to over 5.2 trillion dollars.
According to the study, by 2035, the global aircraft fleet will double. It will increase from 19000 units (currently) to 40 000 aircraft. Over the next 20 years, over the 13 000 aircraft will be replaced by more efficient and comfortable ones.
93 from mega-cities to 2035
The accelerated growth of the aviation industry also leads to the growth of related industries. Over 1 million pilots and engineers will be needed to maintain the new fleet of aircraft. The number of employees from the ground will also increase, and airports will grow more and more.
The study seeks to urbanize the population globally and takes into account the evolutions of emerging markets. It is estimated that by 2035, 62% of the world's population will live in the city, and the number of mega-cities will increase from 55 to 93 in the next 20 years.
According to the study, the global growth engine will be the Asia-Pacific region. China will become the world's largest aviation market. Together with the emerging economies and the concentration of the population in the city, all these will influence the strong growth of air traffic.
As for aircraft, Airbus estimates that demand for widebody aircraft (with 2 color) will increase. Over the next 20 years, it is estimated that over 9500 large aircraft will be delivered, totaling 2.8 trillions of dollars. Percentage: 29% of the required aircraft will provide 54% of estimated revenue. Of the 9500 widebody aircraft, approximately 45% will go to ASIA. In the area of widebody aircraft, Airbus produces the A330, A350 XWB and A380 models, which have transport capacities between 200 and 600 of seats.
Related to the small and single-aisle aircraft market, estimates show a demand for 23.500 of new aircraft worth 2.4 trillions of dollars. 39% of these will go to the ASIA-Pacific area. Airbus is proud of the Airbus A320neo family of aircraft here.
The advantage of large airplanes lies in the operational efficiency, but also in the efficiency of using the slots at airports. There are airports that can no longer grow (eg London Heathrow), and slots need to be used as efficiently as possible.
That being said, according to Airbus forecasts, commercial aviation will grow in the next 20 years as it has grown so far in 100 years. And things won't stop here ...