Aircraft manufacturers are starting to do all kinds of analysis and calculations for the next 20 years. Last summer, Boeing estimates the market at 4.5 trillion dollars and 34 000 new aircraft to 2031.
Also in 2012, Airbus performed an analysis on the Brazilian market. According to a study by Global Market Forecast (GMF), Brazil will need about 1100 new aircraft over the next 20 years.
And the studies have continued, and Airbus recently announced that the ASIA-Pacific area will need over 10 000 aircraft over the next 20 years, of which 3800 will be Widebody. In total, airlines in the region will need 9870 of new passenger and cargo aircraft, to which will be added aircraft that will replace the current fleets.
The value of the transactions is estimated at 1.6 trillion dollars and represents 35% of the estimated market for the next 20 years. It is not far from the analysis made and presented by Boeing in 2012.
Considering the high degree of urbanization in the Asia-Pacific region, aircraft manufacturers are betting that the demand for large and very large aircraft will increase. The market will be approximately 3800 units and will represent 44% of global requirements.
Airbus predicts that 3080 will be large two-color aircraft and here comes the A330 models, the full range of A350 XWB, but also 760 of very large aircraft, with 400 seats, and as an example A380 is given. But the single-aisle market is not neglected either. It is expected that the market will be over 6000 aircraft and here would be the models A318, A319, A320 and A321.
The Asia-Pacific region is a key market for Airbus, accounting for 31% of current aircraft orders. Currently, 97 of carriers in the region have over 2100 of operational aircraft and other 1800 ordered.
Airbus will produce 4 family of passenger aircraft and here we mention A320, A330, A350 XWB and A380. For cargo, Airbus offers the new A330-200F and A330 Passenger-to-Freighter (A330P2F) models. The figures mentioned above refer to the entire market in the region and not just to the number of Airbus aircraft.
Will there still be heaven? 😀