Technical malfunction or missile launched by mistake? The 2 main hypotheses in the case of the plane crash in Iran

On 8 January 2020, a Boeing 737 Ukraine International Airlines crashed in Iran. The Boeing 737-800 UAI (UR-PSR) aircraft was to operate the PS752 flight on the Tehran-Kiev route. Shortly after taking off, the aircraft disappeared from the radar screens. According to the flight report, the aircraft took off at 06:10 local time, and collapsed near Tehran at around 06:20.

They were on board NUMBER of passengers and 9 crew members. Following the aviation accident, there were no survivors. We also have a preliminary list of those on board, by nationalities: • Ukrainians - 11, • Iranians - 82, • Canadians - 63, • British - 3, • Swedes - 10, • Afghans - 7. 

Technical malfunction or missile launched by mistake?

Considering the tensions between Iran and the United States, most have put this plane crash on account of an attack. It is true that the images and the context in which the accident took place make you think about all kinds of movie scenarios. But we cannot confirm what actually happened. It is an ongoing investigation and we await the preliminary report on the PS752 plane crash.

Since the accident occurred and until now, all kinds of messages and speculations have appeared in the international press and on social media channels regarding the causes that led to the crash of the aircraft. But the main tracks are: technical failure vs. anti-aircraft missile.

The 2 main hypotheses in the case of the plane crash in Iran

The Iranians came out first, a few minutes after the accident occurred, and said the plane crashed due to engine failure. It is impossible to give such a verdict with certainty shortly after the occurrence of a plane crash. History has shown that an aviation tragedy is based on several triggering and influencing factors. Any action done in the cockpit also has a reaction. The 2 black boxes on the plane can elucidate much of this mystery.

Just as good, Americans came out and said the aircraft was hit by an Iranian anti-aircraft missile accidentally launched. This hypothesis leads us to the tragic aviation accident of flight MH17. We remind you that the aircraft Boeing 777-200ER (9M-MRD) Malaysia Airlines collapsed near the border between Ukraine and Russia. Following the investigation, 4 people have been charged with murder. It was shown that the aircraft was hit by a BUK missile. However, the verdict was given 5 years after the accident occurred.

Can this little film still elucidate the mystery?

Or this photo?

Other speculation is related to the plane crash with a drone or other flight equipment or a terrorist bombing, but unlikely.

Personal opinion

In my personal opinion, I tend to believe that in the middle was not a mere technical failure. The pilots were experienced on the Boeing 737, accounting for thousands of flight hours together. Moreover, they did special training in Iran, right at the Imam Khomeini International Airport.

I have written dozens of articles and monitored hundreds of incidents. I think it is unlikely that an engine will have a technical malfunction that will lead to an explosion, especially since we are talking about a young Boeing 737-800 (3.6 years old). There were other cases when the aircraft were left without the 2 engines and the pilots managed to bring them to the ground by forced landing. Here we have as a recent example the case of the aircraft Airbus A321 URAL Airlines, which landed in the corn chain.

At the same time, we have a record regarding missile-hit aircraft. And here I refer to MH17. In comparison, the two accidents seem to have something in common. Both aircraft actually collapsed quickly. At the impact with the soil, they exploded, and the remains were scattered over large areas. Correctly, there are also cases where Boeing 2 MAX aircraft were involved. But there are notable differences! I tend to think it was an aviation tragedy, not a mere aviation accident.

But we will wait for the official results. A preliminary report may appear in a few days or weeks. A final report could appear in 12 months and more. Too bad for the 176 people on board. They took off and will never land again!

What is your opinion? I invite you to comment on the causes that led to the plane crash!